{Economic Cycles}[25th October 1989]

[Redbook6:329-332][19891025:0931b]{Economic Cycles}[25th October 1989]

19891025.0931

[continued]

*

**In Juglar’s 8-year economic cycle of recurring prosperity, crisis, and liquidation these periods of initial crisis are identified:***

Difference C -J~	Fit O	‘=Y[ea]rs	Juglar			K[ondratieff] Cycle ↓	K[ondratieff] Cycle	[64 y[ea]r cycle]	64 y[ea]r cycle
					-1				C - G~
(Early) 7	?+(S~)		1825					1832	J~?
		11?			-4
4	+A~		1836					1840	G~
		11	6? 5?	1842?	-2
1	+R~		1847					1848	R~
		10				K Bottom 1850	Bottom 1850
(Late) -1	-S~		1857			(J~-G~)		1856	C
		9
-2	-M~		1866					1864	S~
		7
-1	-S~		1873		UK Collapse	K Top 1873	1873 (Crisis) Top	1872	M~
		9			↓
-2	-M~		1882		UK Price fall			1880	U~
		8			↓
-2	-M~		1890		↓			1888	A~
		10	1893 US Depression		Mid 90’s ↓	K Bottom 1893
-4	-A~		1900		Prices	[\sic–]	1896 Bottom	1896	J~
-3	-U~	7 6	1907		rising			1904	G~
-1	-S~		1913		↓			1912	R~
		7			UK Unemployment....#
0	-C		1920		1921 Depression	K Top 1920	1920 Crisis	1920	C
		9
-1	-S~		1929		Wall St Crash to 1932	(G~-R~)		1928	S~
							1940 Bottom

#[Final word illegible]

– after which Government anti-cyclical policies have flattened out or offset the regular cycle.****

In terms of fitting cycles, this could hardly be worse. The only interesting point is that the maximum co-incidence is at the 64-year C points in 1856 and 1920, and the maximum divergence at J~.

The suggestions from this are:

(1) The economic and C[ircles] A[nalysis] & S[ynthesis] Cycles are conceptually the same – perhaps because the human crisis only occurs when the underlying economic cycle is complete, ie J~, G~ and even R~ have invisibly occurred.

(2)The 8 year economic cycle lags behind the 8 year CAS cycle (discounting 1825-36 – is one crisis missing?) most at J~ and least at C on the 64-year CAS cycle – which makes sense. [(]cf Wall St Crash at 64-y[ea]r J~[)].

*{See V. [[Redbook5:96-98][19880319:1910]{Type Cycles}[19th March 1988],] 96}

**Per E[ncyclopaedia] B[ritannica] 17:968

E[ncyclopaedia] B[ritannica] 29:91

***{Revised [on] <891026>}

{For clearer version see [[Redbook6:333][19891026:1125c]{Schumpeter K Cycles}[25th October 1989],] 333}

{K-cycle – see [[Redbook6:332][19891026:1125]Kondtratieff Cycles}[25th October 1989],] 332}

****{But see [[Redbook6:329-332][19891025:0931b]{Economic Cycles [continued (#)}[25th October 1989],] 331}

[continues]

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