{Economic Cycles [continued (4)]}[25th October 1989]

[Redbook6:330][19891025:0931e]{Economic Cycles [continued (4)]}[25th October 1989]

19891025.0931

[continued]

If the pattern* of lagging most at J~ and least at C~ is repeated on a larger scale – eg 8 x 64 = 512 years, and perhaps even larger – as seems indicated by the (very small) sample we have above* – then the current Stock Marker jitters (1987 and this month) are roughly where one would expect (ie shortly after C in 1984); they may get worse before they get better (ie towards S~ in 1992);** and a stronger crisis may be expected on or after the 2048 year C – in 2048ce. But

(a) knowledge of (or belief in) such cycles may help reduce their impact (or bring them about); and in any case,

[(b)] the cycle is speculative and imprecise.

*[See last previous entry but three, [Redbook6:329-332][19891025:0931b]{Economic Cycles}[25th October 1989]]

**(cf book: ‘The Great Depression of 1990’ (ref Vol … [[Redbook5:96-98][19880319:1910]{Type Cycles}[19th March 1988]] above)

[The writer’s final and published conclusion in the mid 1990s was: “Although the major depressions of the 19th Century have faded from popular consciousness, there are still enough people alive today who remember the Great Depression of the 1930s, or at least the effect it had on their parents, for the protracted slump of the late 1980s and early 1990s to have given rise to uneasy comparisons. But although, for the reasons given earlier, the cycle pattern is not likely to be as regular in economics as it is in politics, it has to be said that the cycle or spin diagrams show the main slump of any cycle generally occurring nearer the *M degree than 1988, sometimes after *M: even if preceded by smaller-scale shocks. Despite the nearness of the very-long-cycles Crisis at 2048, I am prepared to state that, other things being equal (e.g. no war, no Keynesian counter-cyclical policies), I would be very surprised (and very, very pleased) if Europe were to begin real recovery from the present long depression before about 2008ce. The recovery could start later. I would not be surprised if the World economy were to suffer another economic shake-out and slump, more serious than anything we have seen during this cycle, before real long-term recovery begins. The most likely period for such a slump, other things being equal, would be around the year 2000ce. The later the slump, the later the recovery. I base these suggestions on examination of the economics of the four previous 64-year cycles during the Industrial Revolution.”]

[continues]

[PostedBlogger27082020]