{War Directions}[30th March 1984]

[Redbook2:329][19840330:0130]{War Directions}[30^th March 1984]

19840330.0130

There seems to be a possibility – no more than that – of a trend in wars, at least in the last hundred and fifty years or so, as follows: that wars between Nation-States based not on takeover plans but on conflict of interests have a tendency to be east-west aligned rather than north-south; while wars within Nation-States – civil wars – have a tendency to be north-south aligned rather than east-west. Some fiddling is inevitable because of the necessity to discount foreign intervention in civil wars, and to exclude altogether wars based on a simple imperial motivation to take over another country; the latter must presumably occur in whatever direction opportunity lies, but in this hypothesis only wars involving two more-or-less equally belligerent participants are included.

Naturally, only wars which fit the hypothesis spring to mind, at least initially!

I doubt whether this can be sustained. <930119>

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