{Economic Cycles (3) [continued (7)]}[23rd September 1990]

[Redbook7:322-323][19900923:1945g]{Economic Cycles (3) [continued (7)]}[23rd September 1990]

.1945

[continued]

In theory, the length of these* phases, and the C[ircles] A[nalysis &] S[ynthesis] tendency to ‘creep’ by another 1/8th circle or so either way, might account for the oscillation** of J[uglar] and K[ondratieff] cycles; but because the oscillations may (occasionally) cover up to a full 1/2-cycle period in arrears as well as in advance, which hardly makes sense, (ie why a crash or bust on the arc M~-U~-A~?),*** I am inclined to think that there is an oscillating mechanism outside these internal C[ircles] A[nalysis &] S[ynthesis] factors – ie that the whole C[ircles] A[nalysis &] S[ynthesis] pattern oscillates in**** linear time, at least for Economics (the A~ activity).

*[See last 6 previous entries, [Redbook7:320-323][19900923:1945]{Economic Cycles (3)}[23rd September 1990]ff]

**[See [Redbook7:320-323][19900923:1945]{Economic Cycles (3)}[23rd September 1990];

[[Redbook6:333][19891026:1125c]{Schumpeter K[, Kondratieff, & Juglar] Cycles}[26th October 1989](&f?),]]

***[See ms diagram reproduced in last previous entry but five, [Redbook7:320-323][19900923:1945]{Economic Cycles (3)}[23rd September 1990]]

****[sic – this assumes that ‘time’ exists separately, as a thing on its own; should/could this ‘in’ be ‘as’?]

[If there is anything in the C[ircles] A[nalysis &] S[ynthesis] analysis of economic cycles suggested in these entries ([Redbook7:320-323][19900923:1945]{Economic Cycles (3)}[23rd September 1990]ff), it seems completely unclear here how these cycles relate to the general (ie political, religious, cultural &c) C[ircles] A[nalysis &] S[ynthesis] cycle patterns suggested elsewhere in these journals, if they do at all]

[PostedBlogger20032022]

{Economic Cycles (3) [continued (6)]}[23rd September 1990]

[Redbook7:322][19900923:1945f]{Economic Cycles (3) [continued (6)]}[23rd September 1990]

.1945

[continued]

Stability in growth requires the kind of self-restraint, even self-sacrifice, submission, and mutual co-operation at present found only in the German and Japanese economies:* although even the Japanese system is slightly suspect, in the longer run.

*[What about the Swiss economy at the time? & maybe the Netherlands?]

[continued]

[PostedBlogger17for19032022]

{Economic Cycles (3) [continued (5)]}[23rd September 1990]

[Redbook7:322][19900923:1945e]{Economic Cycles (3) [continued (5)]}[23rd September 1990]

.1945

[continued]

By the time of arc* M~-U~-A~** the economy may well appear to be on the way to recovery, with activity getting going again in most or all sectors.

In fact it is arguable that the recovery is already over: in the nature of the O[uter] C[ircle], complication*** and distraction**** are already leading to another round of overheating (the J~ quarter-circle) (or ‘boom’), and bust (the R~ quarter-circle).

*[See ms diagram reproduced in last previous entry but three, [Redbook7:320-323][19900923:1945]{Economic Cycles (3)}[23rd September 1990]]

**[Ms has ‘D[~]’, clearly an error for A~, presumably standing for ‘Distraction’ at A~]

***[U~]

****[A~]

[continued]

[PostedBlogger16for18032022]

{Economic Cycles (3) [continued (4)]}[23rd September 1990]

[Redbook7:321-322][19900923:1945d]{Economic Cycles (3) [continued (4)]}[23rd September 1990]

.1945

[continued]

Thirdly,* the ensuing low period when nothing seems to be happening, after the worst crash, starts during that** period R~-C-S~ and represents a form of crisis resolution phase.

There may be elements of both inner circle and outer circle in this: self-restraint, and re-organisation.

It goes without saying that the O[uter] C[ircle] has always so far quickly become dominant. This represents the arc C-S~-M~ (with contra-rotating I[nner] C[ircle] C-r~... on the I[nner] C[ircle]).***

It is in fact, I suspect, in this quiet period that the seeds of recovery are being sown.

*[See last three previous entries, [Redbook7:320-323][19900923:1945]{Economic Cycles (3)}[23rd September 1990]ff]

**[See last previous entry, including fn=***]

***[See ms diagram reproduced in last previous entry but two, [Redbook7:320-323][19900923:1945]{Economic Cycles (3)}[23rd September 1990]]

[continued]

[PostedBlogger16for17032022]

{Economic Cycles (3) [continued (3)]}[23rd September 1990]

[Redbook7:321][19900923:1945c]{Economic Cycles (3) [continued (3)]}[23rd September 1990]

.1945

[continued]

Secondly,* a ‘crisis’, crash or slump in the economic sense is normally a bit like an earthquake in that there is not one but a series of shocks, sometimes spread over several years. The difference is that in economics the worst ones tend to come last.**

I guess that this represents the arc ***G~-R~-C(-S~).****

*[See last two previous entries]

**[In fact this can happen with earthquakes too]

***[‘G~-’ originally bracketed; see next entry]

****[See ms diagram reproduced in last previous entry but one, [Redbook7:320-323][19900923:1945]{Economic Cycles (3)}[23rd September 1990]]

[continued]

[PostedBlogger16032022]

{Economic Cycles (3) [continued]}[23rd September 1990]

[Redbook7:320-321][19900923:1945b]{Economic Cycles (3) [continued]}[23rd September 1990]

.1945

[continued]

First of all,* it is almost invariably the case that cautious counsels are pointing to the overheating of the economy before the crash occurs – sometimes for years before, even [with]in an 8 year cycle. It will become apparent, taking the recent years in the U[nited] K[ingdom] as an example, that there is simply too much money (credit and tax cuts) available relative to the amount of work being done, or [relative to] the productive capacity of the economy.

This presumably represents the left outer-circle arc, A~-J~-G~-R~-C,** or at least the earlier part of it. Financial activity simply loses contact with underlying wealth creation: financial*** activity becomes more and more frantic as bigger and bigger fortunes are made.

These days, there comes a point when everyone knows it can’t go on, although not everyone says so.

*[See last previous entry, final paragraph]

**[See ms diagram reproduced in last previous entry]

***[Word inserted]

[continued]

[PostedBlogger14for15032022]

{Economic Cycles (3)}[23rd September 1990]

[Redbook7:320-323][19900923:1945]{Economic Cycles (3)}[23rd September 1990]

.1945

The interpretation and possible prediction of economic K[ondratieff] (and possibly J[uglar] cycles in terms of oscillations on the basic 64-year and 8-year cycles (respectively) requires matching to the basic C[ircles] A[nalysis &] S[ynthesis] pattern. This is turn requires an understanding of what is actually happening in the various phases of an economic cycle.

----

.2047

Superficially, a ‘crisis’ occurs at the ‘high’ point of a boom: millions are being made, and a sudden crash exposes the hollowness of the trade.

A closer examination of both the meaning of terms and the course of events suggests a much steadier underlying pattern.

*ref VI. [[Redbook6:333][19891026:1125c]{Schumpeter K[, Kondratieff, & Juglar] Cycles}[26th October 1989](&f?),] 333

See [[Redbook7:279][19900911:1036b]{Economic Cycles}[11th September 1990],] 279.

[[Redbook7:291][19900914:0940b]{Economic Cycles (2)}[14th September 1990],] 291**

**[Underlining added later]

[continued]

[PostedBlogger14032022]

{Facials}[23rd September 1990]

[Redbook7:319][19900923:1045h]{Facials}[23rd September 1990]

.1045

[continued]

‘“When I wish to find out how wise, or how stupid, or how good, or how wicked is any one, and what are his thoughts at the moment, I fashion the expression of my face, as accurately as possible, in accordance with the expression of his, and then wait to see what thoughts or sentiments arise in my mind or heart, as if to match or correspond with the expression.” This response of the schoolboy lies at the bottom of all the spurious profundity which has been attributed to Rochefoucauld, to La Bougive, to Machiavelli, and to Campanella.’

– [C. Auguste Dupin, in] Edgar Allan Poe, The Purloined Letter.

The idea that if you smile you will then feel happy – which can* work – is an example of this notion. But perhaps it’s a technique for writing fiction from character?**

*Up to, or from, a point. It can also be the beginning of hypocrisy. <900924>

.1654

**Yes, according to WSCC*** BP7-6 para 5 – which I must have read already: ‘Watch people’s faces and movements closely. Try to force your own face and movement into similar patterns, and the chances are that you will be able to guess exactly the emotions felt by the people you have under observation.’**** (Chance of a fist in the face, too, I should think.)

***[ibid, (eg) [Redbook7:185][19900801:2340]{Human Interest}[1st August 1990], fn=**]

****[What a very unfortunate choice of those last two words]

[PostedBlogger13032022]

{Cycle Periods [continued (8)]}[21st September 1990]

[Redbook7:318-319][19900921:1045g]{Cycle Periods [continued (8)]}[21st September 1990]

----

.1045

[continued]

However one chooses to describe the trains of events to which the cycles from break to break (ie 1 – 8 – 64 – 512 – 4096)* apply, it seems clear that each group of 4 (overlapping) does represent an escalation or expansion over the previous (ie next shorter) overlapping group of 4.**

Naturally this fails to follow the normal circle progression of 2ⁿ, *** where A~ = 2⁴ which is roughly where chaos appears. But it is worth bearing in mind that Men, like Mankind, are living longer and longer. In very recent times even in Europe the average life expectancy was around 40,**** perhaps giving 32 the significance which 64 now has; and perhaps in pre-history it was even less....

*[See last previous entry]

**{of course!}

***(as on [Redbook7:317][19900921:1045e]{Cycle Periods [continued (5)]}[21st September 1990],] p317}

****[Quaere, whether this figure may be skewed by relatively higher infant mortality in those earlier times]

[PostedBlogger12032022]

{Cycle Periods [continued (7)]}[21st September 1990]

[Redbook7:318][19900921:1045f]{Cycle Periods [continued (7)]}[21st September 1990]

.1045

[continued]

Looking at it like this, these 5 numbers* seem to represent something like natural dividers and meeting points of different scales for Mankind.** It might go something like this:

[Table extracted from ms table reproduced above:]

											? ↓
(2∞?)	→	0	\	\
		<1	}	\						}Obvious natural cycles	C?
20	→	1	/	\
21		2		}						}1-8 years: ?Individual projects	S~?
22		4		|	\
23	(1x8) =>	8		/	\						M~?
24		16		/	|
25		32			}	\				}Individual life cycles	U?
26	(8x8) =>	64			/	\				← BASIC HISTORICAL CYCLE ←Collective cycles based on spontaneous individual processes	A~?
27		128			/	|	?	\
28		256				}	?	}	\	}(Notional 3) (eg Artistic movements)	J~?
29	(64x8) =>	512				/	?	/	\		G~
210		1024				/			}	}Collective cycles based on constructed collective institutions
211		2048							|	\(eg Empires, Religions)	R~?
212	(512x8) =>	4096							/		C?
(213)		(8192)							/		(cf ***)
		….

****

It’s clear that

(a) the shorter groups spread at each end, so the longer may too; and

(b) the 128 and 256 year cycle slots still expect to be filled....

The column on the right offers a better,# though still highly speculative,#* pattern for the apparent lack of 128 and 256 cycles: they occur at J~, Fragmentation.

*[1, 8, 64, 512,4096; see last previous entry]

**[Sentence repeated, in ts & blog only, only from last previous entry]

***(cf [(presumably,) [Redbook7:317][19900921:1045e]{Cycle Periods [continued (5)]}[21st September 1990],] 317)

****[Where two forward or backward slashes occur one above the other, the outermost one(s) above or below the centre ‘}’ are shown hatched (ie less certain, more speculative) in the ms]

#(ie than on [presumably, [Redbook7:317][19900921:1045e]{Cycle Periods [continued (5)]}[21st September 1990],] p317)

#*{& arbitrary, I’d say}

[continued]

[PostedBlogger09for11032022]