{Economic Cycles}[11th September 1990]

[Redbook7:279][19900911:1036b]{Economic Cycles}[11th September 1990]

(Tue[sday]) 19900911.1036

[continued]

[An article on p21 of The Independent for 10^th September 1990 (Business and City section) headed ‘Policing the Gulf: how we will pay’ ‘Economic Commentary by Bill Robinson’ includes the following: The fact is that the world economy is at an interesting juncture. (“World” is a conveniently brief label for the developed nations whose economic welfare is crucial to our own) The world can be divided into three zones (sometimes called the triad): the US, Japan and Europe. The long economic recovery of the 1980s was led by the US, followed by Japan, with Europe some way behind. (The UK, in this analysis as in so much else, was not fully integrated with Europe – our recovery started even ahead of the US.) This cyclical pattern has proved extraordinarily durable. Some eight years later it is becoming clear that the triad will pass the finishing line of this particular upswing in the same order that they left the starting blocks. The US is now clearly into the downswing, Japan is on the turn, while Europe is just reaching the peak. (The UK is still in the lead, being two years into its downswing.)’]

This is interesting, even if only as an isolated instance: an apparent doubling of the 8-year J[uglar]-cycle* to a potential 16-year cycle ** (or at least an 8 year upswing). Presumably the C year is c1980-1982ff,*** the A~ year c1988-1990-1991ff (I think the economists[’] idea of a crisis may be different from mine:**** however, this does depend upon whether the economic cycles mesh with the overall historical pattern, or imitate them on their own terms – if there is a difference).

The 8-year J[uglar]-cycle was reckoned to have faded away when government began to plan for it. Will we get larger and larger cycles?

*ref VI, [[Redbook6:329-332][19891025:0931b]{Economic Cycles}[25th October 1989]ff,] 329,

[[Redbook6:333][19891026:1125d]{Schumpeter K [, Kondratieff, & Juglar] Cycles}[26th October 1989]&f?,] 333

**See [[Redbook7:320][1990090923:1945]{Economic Cycles (3)}[23rd September 1990],] 320{,

[[Redbook7:291][1990090914:0940b]{Economic Cycles (2)}[14th September 1990],] 291}

***But according to [The] Ind[ependent] Business on Sunday 19900923:11, there were recessions in Britain in 1973-4 and 1979-81 (illustrating in practice the resonance of C and A~?). <900923>

****[See eg [Redbook6:329][19891025:0931c]{Economic Cycles [continued]}[25th October 1989]]

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