{Schumpeter K[, Kondratieff, & Juglar] Cycles}[26th October 1989]

[Redbook6:333][19891026:1125c]{Schumpeter K[, Kondratieff, & Juglar] Cycles}[26th October 1989]

19891026.1125

[continued]

Per E[ncyclopaedia] B[ritannica] 17:969

[Text extracted from ms image reproduced above (might be slightly incomplete)#:]

{Schumpeter K cycles} {(There may also be other variations)}

Span

J-cycle (Initial years of crisis)*

8-year cycle fit

8-year cycle C

Difference 8C -J[uglar] Years=1/8

64 year cycle

512 year cycle

K Cycle

Difference 64C/c-K

=1/8

512 year cycle (again)

Span

Bottom

1792**

C

A~

1792

-32

***

[← ]

1800

? [/] √

S~

A~

-4/8

[↑]

1808

↓ ↓

M~

Expansion

A~

23

1816

U~

A~/C

Top 1815

-U~ -23

-3/8

35

+S~?

1824

A~

A~-J~

58

1825

+S~?

1832

-1 /+7?

J~

Contraction

11

1836

+A~

1840

-4 / +4?

G~

{A~ Bottom 1840s}

11

1847

+R?

1848

-7 / +1

R~

C/A~

Bottom1850

-26

-3/8

{C 1855 Top}

10

1857

-S

1856

-1

C

J~

←

9

1866

-M~

1864

-2

S~

#

Expansion

23

7

1873

-S~

1872

-1

M~

Top 1873

-M~ -17

-2/8

J~

23

9

1882

-M~

1880

-2

U~

46

8

1890

-M~

1888

-2

A~

J~-G~

Contraction

#

{A~ 1897 Bottom}

10

1900

-A~

1896

-4

J~

C?

Bottom1896

A~ # -8

-1/8

7

1907

-U~

1904

-3

G~

#

6

1913

-S~

1912

-1

R~

Expansion

24

{[↑]<901125>[↑]}

7

1920

-C

1920

0

C

G~

C Top 1920

-0 0

0

G~

←

Great Crash Great Depression

9

1929

-S~

1928

-1

S~

Contraction

20 44

Re-armament &c

{8}

1937{/9?}

1936

c.-1?

M~

(War distortion?) End of War

{10}

194{7}?

1944

c.-{3}?

U~

Bottom1940

+12? +2?

c.1/8 c.0

Late 1940s: hard times

{13}

{1960?}

1952

{-8!}

A~

G~-R~

orc1950Bottom

UK: 1967 Devaluation

{7}

?{1967?}

1960

{-7}

J~

Early 1970s: slowdown 1973: oil price rise

{6}

{1973?}

1968

{-5}

G~

1976 UK in recession – no jobs! Late 1970s UK high inflation 78-79 Oil shock

{7}

Recession 1973-4-5 (UK) {1980?}

1976

{-4}-5-6 +2+3/-

R~

Opec

“Crisis”

Recession UK 1979-81 1984 UnemploymentUK 1987 Wall St plunges & recovers

{9} 6

Recession 1979-81 (UK) {1989?}

(78-79 Oil Shock)

1984

+3+5/ {-3}-3-5

C

R~ That-cher

Recovery? C1987C UK Top

-3?

c.0

R~

←

1990 Higher UK inflation; recession?

{6?} 11

1988ffOK {1995??}

1990ff

1992

+2{=3?}

S~

Or 1990?

-6?

C ***A~

1982ff 1990ff

****

<960623↑>

2000

<960623↑>

M~

2008

U~

2016

A~

R~-C

(Regular Bottom)

2024

J~

2032

G~

2040

R~

2048

C

C

Difference: + = early; - = late.

(Amended 900410-11)

Amended 900923, &c

The alternative in black {(cancelled in red)} is probably incorrect: C probably is the top and economic crisis year, as by the end of a ‘boom’ things have generally clearly fragmented. <900914>

*[Words in brackets ( ):]<920703>

**{1^st low point 1780s per Hobsbawm ‘Industry & Empire’}

{There may also be other variations}

***(from A~ in 1760)

****(Government anti-cylical policies have flattened out the post-1929 K-cycle.)

{See VII. [[Redbook7:279][19900911:1036b]{Economic Cycles}[11th September 1990],] 279[;]

VII. [[Redbook7:320-323][19900923:1945]{Economic Cycles (3)}[23rd September 1990]] 320}

# [Later marginal notes in red on right-hand side shown against the regular 8-year cycle C date (4^th column):]

8-year cycle C
1864	{1866 Crash of UK Overend & Gurney discount bankers} <901105>
1888	{1890 Collapse of UK Baring Bank}
1896	{=‘The Depression of the 1890s’#*}
1904	{As A~ has diametric resonance to C and is a half cycle C, one would expect some shared characteristics between C & A~}
1928	{└But what exactly does this mean? How can it work in economics?} <901105>

#*(ref V [Redbook5:96-98][19880319:1910]{Type Cycles}[19th March 1988]] 96)

[continues]

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