{ – And* possible contributions}[2nd July 1990]

[Redbook7:164-165][19900705:2310b]{ – And* possible contributions}[2nd July 1990]

19900702.2310

[continued]

It is worth pointing out that I am well aware that this** is an old idea – far older than suggested in the E[ncyclopedia] B[ritannica] article quoted, at least so far as general history is concerned – and that it is now discredited by serious scholars. In the unlikely event that I can contribute something useful, it is likely to be in one or more of these areas:

(1) that the cyclical theory may have some useful validity after all (revealed by increasingly apparent manifestations in relatively recent times, to some of which earlier workers may not have had access);

(2) that there may be a reasonably precise *** mathematical structure involved, possibly related to recently discovered mathematical patterns in other fields of study; and

(3) that the ‘Crisis Point’ at the end (and beginning) of each cycle may offer the opportunity for non-deterministic (‘free’) switching into a qualitatively different form of development.

This last is, of course, the most original and the most interesting of the three possibilities.

*[See last previous entry]

**[Artistic cycles, or historical cycles generally]

***I would add: “qualitative and” <900705>

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